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Signed in as:
filler@godaddy.com
A proper root cause diagnostic takes six weeks. Most organizations try to do it in a meeting. Here's the full process.
Before you investigate causes, get specific about the symptoms. To do so, you need to live in numbers, time frames, and segments.
Sit down with your operating data and answer these questions in one page:
The timeline is everything. If you're told “things started slipping in Q2,” corroborate it with the actual data to ensure that you are starting in the right place and not where the dashboard lags the underlying shift by a quarter or two.
Next, write down - and ask each of your business leads to independently write down - what they believe is causing the decline. You will test the theories later and will want to know whether the final diagnosis matches the initial instincts or contradicts them and why.
Next, list every recent change in the business going back about 24 months: pricing changes, leadership changes, product launches, channel shifts, market entries, organizational restructures. This is not to assign blame - it's to build a timeline we can correlate against the symptom timeline later.
By end of Week One, you should have a one-page symptom statement, a hypothesis, and a change
timeline.
Now you find out where the problem actually lives.
Take whatever metric is moving - revenue, bookings, retention, margin - and break it down along every meaningful axis: customer segment, acquisition channel, product line, geography, deal size, customer tenure, sales rep or team. Look for concentration. In almost every case, what looks like a general problem is actually a specific one. “Revenue is down 15%” usually turns out to be “revenue from new mid-market customers acquired through paid channels is down 60%, while everything else is flat or up.”
This is the Pareto step. The output you want is a sentence that names the problem with surgical specificity: not “churn is up” but “churn among customers under 12 months tenure in [segment] is up 3x while customers over 24 months are stable.”
If the problem really is general - if every segment and channel is declining roughly equally - that’s itself a diagnostic signal. It usually means the cause is either market-level (the whole category is shifting) or company-level (something about your overall positioning, pricing, or brand). Localized symptoms usually have localized or operational causes; general symptoms usually have strategic or market causes.
Now separate mix shifts from real degradation and check whether the underlying business still works.
For the cohort piece: take whichever customer metric is moving - retention, expansion, gross margin per customer - and chart it by the quarter or month customers were acquired. You're looking at each cohort’s curve separately, not the aggregate. Three things can be true, and they have very different implications. If every cohort’s curve looks the same but your aggregate is worse, you have a mix shift - you’re acquiring different kinds of customers than you used to, and the fix is in acquisition, not product. If recent cohorts have worse curves than older ones, the product or market experience has genuinely degraded for newer customers, and you need to figure out what changed. If older cohorts are deteriorating - customers who used to be stable are now leaving - something has changed for your installed base, often a competitor or a quality issue.
For the unit economics piece: rebuild the business from the bottom. What does it cost to acquire one customer right now, fully loaded? What’s the gross margin on that customer in year one? Year two? When does payback happen? How have each of these moved over the past eight quarters? Look for the moment a key number broke. CAC creeping up while LTV stayed flat is a different problem from LTV collapsing while CAC stayed flat, and both are different from payback period extending because retention got worse.
By end of Week Three, you know exactly where the problem lives, whether it’s a mix issue or a structural issue, and which unit economic is broken (if any).
This is the step most skip. It's also the one that most consistently produces the real answer.
Start calling people. You want at least 15-20 conversations across these groups: customers who churned in the last 12 months, prospects you lost in the last 12 months, customers who are still with you but are using you less, employees who left in the last 18 months (especially good performers), and a few of your best current customers.
Keep the conversations open-ended. Don't ask “was it pricing?” Ask, “walk me through how you ended up making this decision.” I listen for what they bring up unprompted. Listen for what they don’t say. Listen for the story they tell about your category and your competitors. Don’t argue, sell, or defend. Take notes. You are not looking for a single answer; you're looking for patterns. After 15-20 conversations, two or three themes will repeat. Those themes are the qualitative diagnosis.
Next, talk to your own people - separately and individually. Ask your best frontline employees (sales, support, product) what they think is going on. They almost always know. If the information hasn't already come up in prior conversations, then the path from them to you is broken which is itself diagnostically interesting.
Now put it together. At this point you have: a specific symptom statement, a clear picture of where the problem lives, an understanding of whether it’s mix or structural, the unit economic that’s broken, and themes from 20 conversations.
Pressure-test each candidate root causes against five questions:
A real root cause passes all five. A symptom dressed up as a cause will fail at least one, usually timing or specificity. Then, separate proximate from ultimate causes. “Sales execution is poor” might be proximate; “we promoted our top closer to head of sales and he can’t manage” is more ultimate; “we have no leadership development pipeline so every promotion is a coin flip” is more ultimate still. You generally want to fix proximate causes immediately to stop the bleeding and address ultimate causes structurally so it doesn’t happen again.
Now act, with discipline - starting with the highest-leverage fix (which is almost never the easiest one).
If you try this yourself, expect these two things to happen and be ready to overcome them.
First, your team will pressure you to act sooner. Three weeks of investigation feels like inaction when revenue is sliding, and someone - usually a board member or an investor - will tell you to stop analyzing and start doing. Resist this. The cost of three more weeks of decline is almost always less than the cost of a year spent executing the wrong fix. The companies that died slowly all had leaders who acted fast on bad diagnoses.
Second, the answer is probably going to be uncomfortable. If the diagnosis is easy and external - “the market got hard” - you’re probably wrong, or at least incomplete. Real root causes usually involve something you, personally, did or didn’t do: a hire you should have made, a product bet you avoided, a strategic shift you saw coming and didn’t act on, a person you kept too long. The diagnostic process only works if you’re willing to follow it to conclusions that implicate you.
Do this honestly and you'll understand more about your business in six weeks than you have in the last three years.
Most turnarounds fail not because the problem can't be found, but because the team finds the wrong problem first and commits to it. This framework is a diagnostic discipline: six lenses, each owned by a specific C-suite seat, each asking a different question about where and why a business may be breaking.
The lenses are sequential by design. The CEO sets the strategic frame. The CFO validates whether the economics can support it. The CMO diagnoses demand. The CPO diagnoses whether the product justifies selection. The CRO diagnoses how efficiently demand and product are being monetized. The COO diagnoses whether the organization can execute reliably at scale.
Run them in order the first time. Not every issue will be present in every business, but failing to evaluate each lens explicitly is one of the most common - and most costly - mistakes in turnaround work.
A turnaround fails when each function attempts to solve its version of the core problem independently. The CEO’s role is to ensure that all functions are working on the same problem - the constraint that is preventing the business from converting effort into value - together.
This begins with revisiting where will the business compete and on what basis will it win - assessing and developing an integrated point of view across:
Where Strategic Frames Typically Break
Category and Demand Dynamics
Competitive Positioning
Consumer Behavior and Expectations
Targeting and Focus
Portfolio and Offering Strategy
Strategic Coherence
Why This Step Is Critical
A turnaround does not begin with action. It begins with range: a broad, structured understanding of what could be wrong, followed by a deliberate narrowing to what actually matters. Not all of these issues will be present in every situation, but failing to evaluate them all explicitly creates risk. Skipping this step is one of the most common, and most costly, mistakes in turnaround efforts.
Once the strategic landscape has been fully mapped, the next step is not execution - it's validation. Which of the potential paths forward are economically sound, and which are not?
In many turnaround situations, the financial picture appears clear at a high level through revenue trends, margin compression, and/or rising acquisition costs... but these are aggregates that often obscure the underlying structure of value creation and destruction.
Adopting the CFO lens at this stage moves you beyond summary metrics and develops a granular understanding of economic performance across the system. This lens evaluates whether the underlying economics work - not how to execute them. Pricing, channel, and discounting strategy execution are addressed under the CRO lens; here, the question is whether the economic structure itself can support a viable business.
Where Economics Typically Break
Breakdowns tend to occur across several dimensions - often simultaneously. A comprehensive assessment typically includes:
Product, Feature, or SKU-Level Contribution
Channel and Customer Economics
Pricing and Discounting Structure
In many cases, pricing architecture reflects historical decisions rather than current market dynamics. Reassessment in the current context of the market, consumers, and competition is needed to revalidate the following:
Cost Structure and Operational Leverage
Cost challenges are often not isolated; they are the result of accumulated decisions over time.
Capital Allocation Effectiveness
From Diagnosis to Economic Clarity
Not all of these issues will be present in every case, but without explicitly evaluating them, organizations risk acting on incomplete or misleading signals. Reducing costs without understanding contribution can eliminate profitable growth drivers. Increasing spend without understanding marginal return can amplify inefficiency. Expanding channels without understanding economics can accelerate value destruction
The objective is not simply to control cost. It is to establish the economic truths of where the business actually makes money, where it does not, and under what conditions it could.
Implications for Decision-Making
This analysis does not produce a single answer; it produces constraints and trade-offs. Depending on what is uncovered, different paths may become viable or non-viable. A focused strategy may be supported or constrained by cost structure. Pricing reset may unlock margin or reduce demand to such a degree that both the top and bottom line suffer. Channel expansion may drive growth or dilute returns.
The finance hat assessment ensure that these trade-offs are explicit, decisions are grounded in marginal (not blended) economics, and the organization understands the financial consequences of each path - and to genuinely partner with marketing to understand the near and long-term implications of different investment levels and strategies to top and bottom lines from adding, cutting, or reallocating.
Why This Step Is Critical
Many turnaround efforts fail at this stage - not because analysis is absent, but because it is incomplete or ignored. Organizations often rely on blended metrics that mask variability, optimize for revenue without understanding contribution, pursue growth without validating economic viability, or cut or reallocate at the expense of building equity and value needed for long-term success. The result is activity that appears productive but does not improve the underlying business.
Growth that degrades unit economics compounds risk, not value. In a turnaround, the finance team determines whether strategies are realistic, scalable, and value-creating. Without this grounding the organization risks pursuing paths that improve optics, but not outcomes.
With strategic direction defined and economic constraints understood, the next question is: where and why is demand failing to convert into intent and action? The role of marketing is to diagnose and address breakdowns across the entire demand system, which typically includes multiple potential failure modes.
Where Demand Systems Typically Break
A comprehensive assessment should consider several dimensions, including but not limited to:
Business/Brand Health and Salience
Audience and Targeting Misalignment
Value Proposition Clarity and Differentiation
Creative and Communication Effectiveness
Funnel Friction and Experience Gaps
Channel and Media Mix Efficiency
Measurement and Signal Quality
Post-Conversion and Lifecycle Breakdown
From Diagnosis to Action
Not all of these issues will be present simultaneously. However, focusing on only one can lead to incomplete solutions. The role of marketing is to identify where along the demand system breakdown is occurring, prioritize interventions based on impact and feasibility, and align messaging, media, and experience to reduce friction at those points.
This may result in very different actions depending on the diagnosis:
There is no universal playbook. But there is a consistent requirement: demand must not only be generated - it must also be converted efficiently and sustainably.
Why This Step Is Critical
Improving demand without improving conversion creates cost. Improving conversion without sufficient demand limits growth. Both must be evaluated and addressed in context.
In a turnaround, the marketing team ensures that the business is reaching the right audience, with a clear and differentiated message, in the moments that matter, and with a system that converts attention into intent and intent into action.
Now that demand is being generated and shaped and intent is being converted into revenue, the next question is: does the product or experience justify consumer selection and establish consumer preference - and sustain them over time?
A business cannot sustain growth if the underlying product or experience does not deliver meaningful value, address the job it was hired for, and deliver on expectations. Turnarounds often reveal that customers can be acquired and conversion can be improved, but retention remains weak. This typically indicates a breakdown in product value or experience delivery (assuming lifecycle and retention marketing efforts have also been evaluated and their weaknesses addressed by marketing - though product still must still be re-validated too even if it a breakdown was identified was upstream).
Where Product Systems Typically Break
Each of the following should be considered in a turnaround scenario:
Core Value Proposition Misalignment
Product-Market Fit Degradation
Portfolio Complexity and Dilution
User Experience and Usability
Consistency and Quality
Innovation and Evolution Capability
Retention and Lifecycle Performance
From Diagnosis to Action
Depending on the root causes, actions may include refining or redefining the core value proposition, simplifying the portfolio, improving onboarding and experience design, investing in quality, and consistency, or accelerating innovation or iteration. The appropriate path depends on the nature of the breakdown.
Product decisions in a turnaround should not be made in isolation. The voice of the consumer - whether sourced through product research, marketing insight, or direct customer dialogue - must guide the diagnosis and the response. Product leadership owns the answer; the answer is built on real customer truth.
Why This Step Is Critical
Acquisition and conversion can be improved through marketing and revenue strategies. But only the product determines whether growth compounds or resets each cycle. Retention is the clearest signal of product health.
In a turnaround, product leadership ensures that the offering delivers real, sustained value, the experience reinforces the brand promise, and customers have a reason to return, not just to try.
At this point strategy is defined, economics are validated, and demand system breakdowns are identified. The next question becomes: once intent exists, how effectively is it translated into revenue?
The presence of demand - and even intent - does not guarantee value creation. In many turnaround situations, breakdowns occur not in demand generation, but in monetization and conversion systems. The next layer of analysis focuses on how effectively the business captures value from customer intent.
This lens picks up where the CFO lens leaves off. The CFO has determined whether the economics can work; the CRO determines whether the organization is executing pricing, packaging, channel, and conversion in ways that actually realize that potential
Where Monetization Systems Typically Break
Key areas to evaluate include:
Pricing Strategy and Structure
Packaging and Offering Design
Channel Strategy and Execution
Conversion Experience
Revenue Quality and Customer Mix
Incentives and Internal Alignment
Dependence on Discounting and Promotion
From Diagnosis to Action
Different diagnoses lead to different interventions: pricing recalibration, simplification of offerings, channel rebalancing, redesign of conversion pathways, restructuring of incentives, or a combination of these and adjacent interventions.
The objective is not simply to increase conversion rates. It is to ensure that intent is translated into high-quality, economically sound revenue.
Why This Step Is Critical
Even with strong demand and messaging poor pricing can suppress value, misaligned channels can dilute margin, and friction in conversion can waste demand. Without effective monetization, improvements upstream do not translate into outcomes.
In a turnaround, the revenue team ensures that the business captures value efficiently, conversion pathways are optimized, and growth contributes to long-term economic health.
Now that strategy is defined, economics are aligned, demand is converting, revenue is being captured, and product value is being delivered, the final question is: can the organization execute this system reliably and at scale?
Even when all upstream elements are aligned, turnarounds can fail in execution. This reflects breakdowns in operational systems and organizational alignment.
Where Execution Systems Typically Break
Operational Complexity
Supply Chain and Production Reliability
Quality Control and Consistency
Cross-Functional Alignment
Talent and Organizational Design
Speed and Responsiveness
Incentives and Accountability
Scalability of Systems
From Diagnosis to Action
Operational interventions may include simplifying processes, restructuring teams, improving forecasting and supply systems, optimizing supply chain, internalizing production (or other vertical integration), strengthening quality controls, and aligning incentives and accountability.
The goal is not operational perfection. It is consistent, reliable delivery of the value the business intends to create.
Why This Step Is Critical
Execution issues often appear incremental. But over time, they compound, into inconsistent experiences, lost demand, margin vulnerability, and weakened brand trust.
Operations ensures that the system functions as designed, execution is consistent across contexts, and the organization can sustain performance over time.
Connect with Me: www.linkedin.com/in/simonejburke/
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